|
Last weekend, the Oklahoma Republican Party(OKGOP) held their biennial convention and election of new leadership. The week began with two candidates for state chair. On Monday night, the last major candidate forum was held by 3 county GOP organizations.
Sitting in the audience was Senator Nathan Dahm. Nathan knew his announcement was going to be made the next morning. But he waited. He listened. He said nothing to the crowd or the audience watching on live social media streams. Before the week ended, he was the winner of the race, on the 2nd round balloting. How did that happen? |
|
Senator Dahm came into prominence in 2012, by leading the Ron Paul campaign effort in Northeast Oklahoma. When that presidential campaign moved on to other states, Dahm’s attention moved to an open senate seat in his Broken Arrow home. As Dahm built bridges within the Republican base, he captured the GOP nomination in the August runoff.
As the religious right came to appreciate Dahm’s legislative efforts, he was repeatedly reelected, and is now completing his final term in office. Now married and starting a family, Dahm is looking to new horizons in public life.
As the religious right came to appreciate Dahm’s legislative efforts, he was repeatedly reelected, and is now completing his final term in office. Now married and starting a family, Dahm is looking to new horizons in public life.
The End of AJ Farate
Attorney AJ Farate has served in the OKGOP as legal counsel for several administrations. Nearly a year ago, Farate offered his candidacy to the OKGOP State Committee, when the elected chairman resigned. Farate was the choice of the ‘tall building’ Republicans, elected officials, and many traditional and moderate conservatives.
But the state conventions have been heavily populated by passionate advocates of causes like abolishing all abortions, ending all firearms restrictions, advancing spiritual influences in our culture, and restoring healthcare freedoms in the covid era. More importantly, the Trump MAGA Republicans completely control the party.
Farate delivered on
But the state conventions have been heavily populated by passionate advocates of causes like abolishing all abortions, ending all firearms restrictions, advancing spiritual influences in our culture, and restoring healthcare freedoms in the covid era. More importantly, the Trump MAGA Republicans completely control the party.
Farate delivered on
- restoring the fiscal house, with his fundraising;
- assisting the GOP nominees to strong wins in statewide races; and
- reconnecting with county GOP organizations.
What Farate largely failed to do is gain the trust of the MAGA base. In One of Farate’s first meetings after assuming the OKGOP chair, he told Tulsa County Committee members to quit using the word ‘RINO’. He reasoned that it’s hurting the party’s effort to win races in ‘purple’ communities. That hit the activists as an insult. And they didn’t forget it.
Early polling
Farate’s fate was already sealed in February. Former State Rep. Sean Roberts announced his candidacy. Roberts was co-chair of the House Platform Caucus. He championed many causes on gun rights, healthcare choices, and prolife reforms. Several early endorsements led to polling where Farate never reached 30%. The anti-Farate base was hard-fast and it was too late for him to win a 2-way race.
The Warrior/Maiden Letters
A series of anonymous emails started going out to GOP delegates. They were caustic and salacious. Many folks assumed it was another effort of Sooner Tea Party leader, Al Gerhart. Gerhart helped lead efforts to select the two previous state chairmen. But the Maiden letters and Sooner Tea Party flatly refuted any Gerhart involvement. Gerhart said he was sitting this election out and focusing on policy reforms instead.
About 3 weeks ago, The Maiden letters turned pointedly negative at Roberts, while promoting a rumor that Senator Nathan Dahm will eventually enter the race. Dahm did not respond to our early inquiries when SoonerPolitics reached out to his office.
Former Mayor, Brian Hobbs, took the role of campaign volunteer for the Roberts campaign. His investigators uncovered the original email address of the Maiden letters. Through a password reset attempt, Hobbs says he was asked to enter the mobile phone number associated with the yahoo email account When Farate’s listed cell number was entered, Hobbs says “it confirmed a positive match”.
We have not seen a public statement from Farate where he refutes the Hobbs investigation.
More ‘Maiden’ letters were sent, repeating the claim that Dahm will enter the race very late. The Maiden letters quit focusing on the Farate option, and instead focused on salacious court records of both Hobbs & Roberts. It was obvious that the strategy was to promote a Dahm option and trash the Roberts option.
About 3 weeks ago, The Maiden letters turned pointedly negative at Roberts, while promoting a rumor that Senator Nathan Dahm will eventually enter the race. Dahm did not respond to our early inquiries when SoonerPolitics reached out to his office.
Former Mayor, Brian Hobbs, took the role of campaign volunteer for the Roberts campaign. His investigators uncovered the original email address of the Maiden letters. Through a password reset attempt, Hobbs says he was asked to enter the mobile phone number associated with the yahoo email account When Farate’s listed cell number was entered, Hobbs says “it confirmed a positive match”.
We have not seen a public statement from Farate where he refutes the Hobbs investigation.
More ‘Maiden’ letters were sent, repeating the claim that Dahm will enter the race very late. The Maiden letters quit focusing on the Farate option, and instead focused on salacious court records of both Hobbs & Roberts. It was obvious that the strategy was to promote a Dahm option and trash the Roberts option.
Convention Conversations
My first opportunity to visit Dahm was at the Friday session of the OKGOP convention. Dahm explained that he feared a Washington County chairman’s effort to pack the convention with fake delegates. He says that’s why he waited and avoided all forum opportunities. But Washington County only has a preset number of votes for their ‘open delegation’. And the county’s allotment is under 10% of the convention votes. Even doubling the faces in the Bartlesville area section of the convention floor, will only impact perhaps 2% of the possible swing. And that’s assuming that the new chair hates/fears Dahm as much as Dahm wants me to believe. I believe there’s more reasons than I was told. And I’m almost always a big supporter of Dahm.
The Vote
Dahm’s formal campaign was essentially a 5 minute nominating/acceptance speech. The balloting started with a selection for Vice Chair. Osage County Chair, Wayne Hill; won easily on the first ballot, with nearly 60% support. Both Farate & Roberts endorsed him. Michael Stopp & Paula Price held about 20%, each.
Farate never really showed any campaign form at the convention. He succeeded in putting on an efficient convention, and seemed to focus on that.
Roberts chose former Chair, John Bennett, to nominate him. That may have been a mistake. Bennett is seen by many of his former supporters as a failure and bad administrator.
In the first round of Balloting, Farate only carried 16% of the vote. That’s the worst defeat of an incumbent in decades.
Dahm & Roberts essentially tied with about 42% each. There was a dispute, but the convention chair (Rep. Jon Echols, chose to move to the 2nd round because the dispute was over about half of 1% of the returns.
Farate never really showed any campaign form at the convention. He succeeded in putting on an efficient convention, and seemed to focus on that.
Roberts chose former Chair, John Bennett, to nominate him. That may have been a mistake. Bennett is seen by many of his former supporters as a failure and bad administrator.
In the first round of Balloting, Farate only carried 16% of the vote. That’s the worst defeat of an incumbent in decades.
Dahm & Roberts essentially tied with about 42% each. There was a dispute, but the convention chair (Rep. Jon Echols, chose to move to the 2nd round because the dispute was over about half of 1% of the returns.
Farate’s Open Endorsement
Immediately after the first ballot tallies were reported at the podium, Farate was at the floor microphone directly in front of the podium. Once recognized, Farate called on his supporters to support Dahm. Convention Chair Jon Echols slightly scolded Farate for the misuse of the convention order. But the words were spoken and could not be retracted.
A Roberts campaign organizer was then recognized. The campaign said something to the effect that a Farate endorsement was unwanted and worthless. Chairman Echols equally scolded that statement and called for a resumption of order in the room.
A Roberts campaign organizer was then recognized. The campaign said something to the effect that a Farate endorsement was unwanted and worthless. Chairman Echols equally scolded that statement and called for a resumption of order in the room.
The Kingmaker
Richard Engle once told me; “If you can’t become a king, become a kingmaker.” Farate effectively did this. He’s not dumb. He seems to have planned this orchestrated process weeks ago; as soon as he deemed his race unwinnable.
The 2nd round runoff commenced and Dahm won on a nearly 60-40 split. All of Farate’s base moved to Dahm.
The 2nd round runoff commenced and Dahm won on a nearly 60-40 split. All of Farate’s base moved to Dahm.
Bad Blood
What Dahm is left with is an evenly split base on the MAGA-right of his party. Roberts and Dahm are historic allies. They both are highly respected by the same base of activists. Dahm needs to mend this in order to have any chance of keeping an effective chairmanship which reflects Dahm’s passionate advocacy of conservatism & liberty.
Roberts has lost races in the past and faced sabotage within his own party. It hurts. Even when he narrowly was reelected in 2018, he was ready to burn down his own Republican house leadership because several of them orchestrated the defeat of most of his Platform Caucus allies.
Roberts will not ‘roll over’ quickly or quietly. Nor will Roberts’ supporters. Perhaps the ‘tall building’ Republicans feel satisfied over splitting the MAGA right base?
Roberts has lost races in the past and faced sabotage within his own party. It hurts. Even when he narrowly was reelected in 2018, he was ready to burn down his own Republican house leadership because several of them orchestrated the defeat of most of his Platform Caucus allies.
Roberts will not ‘roll over’ quickly or quietly. Nor will Roberts’ supporters. Perhaps the ‘tall building’ Republicans feel satisfied over splitting the MAGA right base?
DeSantis Impact
Will this become an opening for the DeSantis campaign to gain a base in Oklahoma? DeSantis did send a campaign team to the OKGOP Convention. We attempted to interview them, but they claim they were not authorized to talk to anyone who might be a media outlet.
Ambassador Wayne Hill
The newly-elected vice chair, Wayne Hill, will have a huge opportunity to be the hero, in this hour. Hill campaigned heavily for Roberts. Farate endorsed Hill. Dahm must now work with Hill. If Hill can get the Roberts faction engaged and invested in the Dahm administration, Dahm has a chance to succeed. And even then, Dahm will face funding hurdles and other buried mines in this political minefield.
